Welcome to Macro Voices

Louis-Vincent Gave

Louis-Vincent Gave, Co-Founder, Gavekal Research

The End of a Unipolar Investment World

For all of our careers, Emerging Markets in general and Asia in particular have been warrants on the US dollar. When the world had too many dollars (and the US$ fell) Asia/EM rose and vice-versa. Undeniably, the past year has seen ‘more of the same’. But could this change in the near future? China is clearly trying to put together a “new” Asian/EM monetary system, one in which the system’s dependency on the US$ wanes. At the same time, China is now coming under pressure for the current US administration, so the country’s ability to promote such a transition is threatened. This unfolding monetary battle may well be the single most important macro development, yet investors have few historical points of comparison to navigate increasingly choppy waters…

Speaker Bio

Louis co-founded Gavekal as an independent macro research firm in Hong Kong with his dad Charles and friend Anatole Kaletsky in 2002. The starting premise for Gavekal was that China was set to become a very important economic and financial force in the world, yet most foreign investors did not know where to begin when thinking through the global financial implications of China’s rise. In 2005, Louis launched Gavekal’s money management operation and launched the first Gavekal UCITS fund, the Gavekal Asian Opportunities UCITS fund, which he has co-managed since then with Alfred Ho. Gavekal today manages some US$1.6 billion in various funds and strategies on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients. As the Chief Executive Officer of Gavekal, Louis is the only Gavekal staff member with responsibilities on both the research, and money management, side of our operations.

Louis has written five books and his latest one, Too Different For Comfort, was published in August 2013. The book reviews the macro-consequences of the age of robotics, the reasons behind the low velocity of money around the world, the coming collapse in oil prices, and whether the RMB could grow to become a reserve currency in its own right.

Before founding Gavekal, Louis worked as an equities analyst at Banque Paribas in Singapore, Hong Kong and London. He was also a second lieutenant in French mountain infantry and received a Bachelor’s degree from Duke University with a double major in History and Economics and a minor in Mandarin (which he once spoke half decently). Louis is fluent in French and English and very rusty in Spanish.

When he is not working, Louis hangs out with his wife and four children, plays rugby or skis. Louis is the second largest shareholder in the UBB-Bordeaux rugby club (currently evolving in the French Top 14) and is also heavily involved in the running of the Valley Rugby Football Club in Hong Kong.

Julian Brigden

Julian Brigden, Founder, MI2 Partners

2019: Recession, Deflation or Salvation?

Since, the Global Financial Crisis, central bankers in the developed world have been forced to dig deep into their toolboxes and draw upon the extremes of academic theory, in pursuit of global reflation. And by the middle of this year it looked like their policy of “running it hot” had succeeded. Unfortunately, what they’d neglected to understand is that in the process, they had once again recreated many of the excesses that got us into this predicament in the first place. In that scenario, the very growth and inflation they’d strived so very hard to achieve was utterly toxic to risks assets that had been nailed to the ceiling and yields/rates nailed to the floor. Therefore, as the excesses unwind, the logical conclusion is that we are once again heading into recession and deflation. But is there an alternative and a path to salvation?

Speaker Bio

Julian Brigden is the Co-Founder and President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners. Julian has over 25 years of experience in financial markets and has held positions in market and policy focused consulting to hedge funds and banks as well as in FICC sales. Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.

As a global macro strategist, and not a journalist or economist by training, Julian’s primary focus is exploiting trading opportunities inherent in macroeconomic and policy related developments. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets which are vital to a vast array of investment decision makers. Julian has been featured on Bloomberg, CNBC, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and in Barron’s among other for the firm's research on EM, liquidity, QE, Bubbles, and global Fx.

Juliette Declercq

Juliette Declercq, Founder, JDI Research

Presentation Topic

Juliette will speak on the topic of following the intermediary cycles in the overall business cycles across the world in order to predict asset price trends.

Speaker Bio

JDI research focuses on providing timely and exclusively trade-driven market strategy on global assets and risk (FX, EM, Fixed Income, commodities and equities). Juliette Declercq is the main analyst. With a strong macroeconomic background and 17 years of experience in strategy and proprietary trading (JPMorgan & Morgan Stanley and at 2 hedge funds Idalion and Stone Milliner), Juliette has spent most of her career advising some of today’s most successful portfolio managers. Juliette Declercq has a proven ability to turn a vast amount of information (macro, geopolitical, technical, statistical and psychology analysis) into high impact & good risk reward trade ideas (cross-product and cross-asset). Whilst being aware of all macro trends and studying them in depth, Juliette believes that psychology plays as big a part in driving asset prices in the time frame hedge fund portfolio managers are pressured to deliver returns nowadays. As such, she spends as much time gauging consensus and the likely way it will swing from one narrative to the other than on the macro story itself. This process allows for consistent and precise market timing. JDI research provides regular roadmaps for traders to navigate markets successfully and timely updates on game changers. The service does not stop at the regular roadmap, we also offer a daily and customised presence to premium clients to ensure continuous and timely thoughts and trade ideas to portfolio managers.

Art Berman

Art Berman, Founder, Labyrinth Consulting

Using Comparative Inventory to Bet Against Oil Markets

Oil markets grossly misjudged price vectors in the last few months. Oil prices increased 18% from mid-August to early October based on an unfounded fear of under-supply. In the last month, prices have fallen 34% based on fear of over-supply.

How is a shift like this possible in such a short period of time? A more productive question might be, how is it possible to bet against such irrational shifts in market sentiment?

Comparative inventory allows a rational basis to answer the second question. A yield curve is derived using comparative inventory (instead of maturity) and spot oil price (instead of interest rate). This provides a semi-quantitative method of comparing current price to the price anticipated based on the present level of oil in storage. Comparative inventory correctly predicted the false oil-price vectors seen in August through November, and has provided the same reliable calibration for oil prices over the past 20 years.

Speaker Bio

Arthur E. Berman is a geological consultant with thirty-seven years of experience in petroleum exploration and production. He currently is consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. He frequently gives keynote addresses for investment conferences, boards of directors and professional societies. He is often interviewed about energy topics on television, radio, and national print and web publications including CNBC, CNN, CBC, BNN, OilPrice.com, Bloomberg, Platt’s, Financial Times, and New York Times. He is a Director of ASPO-USA (Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA). He was a Managing Director and frequent contributor at The Oil Drum, and is an associate editor of the AAPG (American Association of Petroleum Geologists) Bulletin. He was past Editor of the Houston Geological Society Bulletin (2004-2005) and past Vice-President of the Society (2008-2009). He has published more than 100 articles on geology, technology, and the petroleum industry during the past 5 years.

Brent Johnson

Brent Johnson, CEO, Santiago Capital

Presentation Topic

The Dollar Milkshake - The global financial markets are approaching the end of a Debt Super Cycle and a currency crisis is virtually guaranteed. The knock-on effects and ramifications of this coming crisis will surprise many, perhaps even those who are expecting it to happen. As the world scrambles for the ultimate Giffen Good (money) the crisis will reach every corner of the globe. The Dollar Milkshake theory lays out an unlikely, but I think correct, path through this storm which ultimately will usher in not only a new monetary system, but potentially a new world political order.!

Speaker Bio

Brent Johnson brings 20 years of experience in the financial markets to his position as CEO of Santiago Capital. He has been creating and managing comprehensive wealth management strategies for the personal portfolios of high-net-worth individuals and families since the late 1990s. The lack of an appropriate precious metals solution for his clients is what led him to create and launch the Santiago Gold Fund, LP in January 2012. A recognized expert in the gold community, Brent’s views have been quoted in numerous prints, online and television outlets.

In addition to managing Santiago Capital, Brent is a Managing Director at Baker Avenue Asset Management. Before joining Baker Avenue, Brent spent 9 years with Credit Suisse as vice president of their private client group. Prior to that, he was with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ) in New York City before moving within the firm to San Francisco. Earlier in his career, Brent was a financial auditor for Phillip Morris Management Company in New York City. In addition to performing audits at the company’s headquarters, he worked on projects for Philip Morris subsidiaries in Germany, Hong Kong, and Richmond, Virginia.