Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

• Rebalancing the market: Between U.S. Shale, 180mm bbl of Floating Storage, and a recession, how long will it take to get back to normal?
• Long-term outlook for global energy markets: Why higher prices are inevitable
• The risk of alternatives under-delivering resulting in a supply capacity-induced global energy crisis in ~10 years time

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• The Hong Kong Debacle: Why Xi Jinping needs to save Hong Kong rather than sacrifice it
• U.S. Dollar weakness: What’s driving it and where is it headed?
• Civil unrest in the USA and elsewhere: What are the causes and what comes next?

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• The Fed has been extremely aggressive and markets have responded – are we headed towards all time highs?
• Tapering of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and what it means for the markets
• How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• If the Fed really was printing money, there'd be no need to sell it to the public in general, financial services industry specifically.
• Chairman Powell appeared on 60 Minutes in May, and while everyone focused on his statement "create money digitally" no one noticed three important lies the Chairman told.
• There isn't the slightest hint of inflation in any meaningful market after almost three months of so-called money printing. Nor in corporate boardrooms.
• The most optimistic case, the base comparison the Fed (and CBO) is using, is that this will all end up being worse than the 2008-09 Great "Recession." 
• Hopefully back to even by the end of next year isn't quite what people have in mind, and that's why this openly aggressive central bank response (lying).

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                                                                  The Flood Myth - Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 06 01 

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Shape of the economic recovery: Why “Letter Shapes” like V, W, L, and U are insufficient to describe what will occur
• How financial markets will react to multiple recovery scenarios in the real economy
• U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID19 world
• State of the art in industrial drone technology

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Deflation vs. Inflation
• Is it MMT that makes the difference between depression and reflation?
• Equity market outlook after the COVID-19 crisis

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• U.S. Dollar Outlook – Why Brent still forecasts an upside resolution to the USD consolidation
• S&P 500 forecast
• Gold & Gold Miners
• Commodities outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #104 Brent Johnson Chartbook May 11 2020

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Bank reserves fall under an outdated definition of "base money", therefore it isn't clear what an increase in bank reserves actually signifies.
• Beginning with inflation expectations, if the Fed was printing money then its missing from the bond market; TIPS suggest crisis level lows for short run and long run inflation conditions (deflation, in other words)
• Despite that $1.5 trillion, LIBOR remains crucially elevated; TED spread behaving just like 2008
• You're not supposed to question what central banks actually do, because if you think through the actual process you'll see there's far less than you're made to believe (belief is what matters in modern monetary policy)

Supporting Materials for Download

Not Money Printing - GFC2: The Bowl's Empty 

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• Louis’ post-crisis macro outlook
• U.S.-China relations after the crisis and what it means for markets
• Erik & Louis comment on the crash of May Crude oil futures to -$40 in real time as it happens in the market

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

• U.S. Dollar: What are the drivers and what’s Julian’s outlook
• Stock Market outlook: Is it time for new shorts or is there more upside?

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Bail-out nation: Will the long list of bailout packages tip the economy into secular inflation?
• Unexpected knock-on effects: What aspects of society will change from the crisis and why?
• Bio-hazards and Bio-Weapons: Why do governments need bio-weapons laboratories and what if an accident led to another outbreak?

All-Star Louis-Vinecnt Gave and Erik discuss:

• Why Asia and Europe had such profoundly different outcomes from the COVID19 Pandemic
• Three crisis for the price of one: Why markets are currently experiencing three separate crises at once
• Coming challenges for Europe

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
• How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
• How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Despite modern complexities in finance and money, the basic issue is old fashioned currency elasticity. Central banks are not suited for it, and the results are obvious now.
• September's repo event said that money dealers when faced with irregularities would sit on the sidelines regardless of Fed action. They are definitely sitting on the sidelines.
• Market liquidations come down to repo market - on the collateral side.
• Stocks, rates, credit, gold, crude; all these asset classes joined by the same factor.
• QE's are coming not because they work but because that's what central banks do. Bureaucracies care more for their routines than the results.  

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook: Elasticity - But What is the Currency 

                                                                 Jeff Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

• Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
• Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
• Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

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A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
• Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
• Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why Jeff’s indicators showed a global slowdown before the Coronavirus story emerged in the news
• Dollar-positive effects of the global Eurodollar system are in play, independent of the virus story
• Why dollar strength is a bad thing, not a good thing, and what to expect from here

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 02 26

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Why this story has gotten little attention since first breaking in September 2019
• Why Luke thinks the U.S. Government wants higher gold prices, an about-face from prior stance
• Gold market outlook – why Luke is still bullish Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
• Economic implications of Coronavirus on global supply chain

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why didn’t the August yield curve inversion lead to a recession (so far)?
• Eurodollar curve inversion started before UST inversion
• Forward-looking economic outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook MacroVoices 2020 02 04 

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Pippa weighs in on the Coronavirus outbreak in China, still sees bull market ahead for risk assets
• Reactions to Kyle Bass’ allegations that China is mining U.S. genetic mapping data for nefarious purposes
• Pippa’s U.S. election outlook