Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Why the narrative just failed and what it means
• Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
• Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
• Equity and Gold outlooks
• Hong Kong update

All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

• Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
• Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
• Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
• But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
• Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
• Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
• U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
• Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
• Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
• Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
• Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
• Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
• Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
• Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
• Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Big picture: What happened and why it’s important
• Comparing the writings of Nathan Tankus, Zoltan Poszar and George Seglin as they relate to this event
• Why Steve doesn’t think the fiat sky is falling, as some in the crypto community have suggested

All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

• Repo market mayhem and the Fed’s losing touch with markets
• Danielle’s reactions to Jeff Snider’s insights on the repo market blow-up
• Watch the MOVE index, not the stock market, for signs of distress

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - Noise Silencing Policy 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor  (from All Stars Episode #55 September 11th 2019)

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• How last week’s repo rate blowout fits into the narrative Jeff has been engaging MacroVoices listeners in for weeks
• Debunking the “It’s just transitory technical factors” explanation offered by Jay Powell
• Primary dealers are inexplicably hoarding safe-haven assets. We need to ask why?
• Discussion of what this might mean and what may be coming
• The significance of underlying systemic funding pressures and what it has already meant to this point. 

Supporting Materials for Download

Funding Pressures - Something Doesn't Seem Right 

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

• Can the Fed still save us from a recession?
• Bond market outlook – has the trend reversed?
• Geopolitical developments last weekend

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (12.62 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Why Abqaiq has always been a key security vulnerability and why it was targeted
• Why Pippa doesn’t think the end result will be as bad as the market seems to initially fear
• Outlook for how this situation could evolve, and how Russia and China may eventually come into the mix
• Why Pippa remains bullish equity markets

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (25.76 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• What happened last Monday and why it’s an important signal
• Why the Stock and Bond markets may not be delivering contradicting signals after all
• Hong Kong update
• Gold outlook

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (14.47 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

• Saudi Arabia Power Shuffle: Why all the recent changes in ministers and what it means to markets
• Khalid al Falih’s legacy
• OPEC report summary and outlook for JMMC meeting
• Russian forecast for $25 oil in 2020
• John Bolton’s firing and the dramatic drop in oil prices which ensued
• IEA Forecast (not yet published) and JMMC Outlook

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (22.32 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

• Danielle explains why the U.S. Labor market isn’t as healthy as Powell’s recent speech would lead us to believe
• Free sample issue of Danielle’s subscriber letter containing a full description of her arguments
• Mark Carney’s pitch for a “multi-polar” reserve currency at Jackson Hole

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (15.36 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Why China lowered their RRR
• Implications for markets and the economy
• Great chart book accompanies interview

China RRR Gambit 

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (12.81 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• What to expect from the ECB on Thursday this week
• Juliette’s detailed prescriptions for fixing monetary policy
• Juliette’s market outlook

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (13.47 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Why the U.S. Dollar is even stronger than most people realize
• Gold breakout and what comes next
• Equity outlook

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (18.97 MB) .

Click to Play Now!

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Oct 12, 2018: A date few noticed but we all should: The USD “insurance” market effectively went no-offer
• Why FX-hedged relative yields are so important
• Consequences of FX-hedged UST yields turning negative
• Where we stand: 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning?
• The mechanics: What should we expect from markets when the Fed is forced to monetize deficits?

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (19.08 MB) .

Click to Play Now!