Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:
- The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election
- Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
- Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
- Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
- The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
- Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
- U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
- Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
- Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
- Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
- China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
- China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
- 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
- State of the global commodities supercycle
- Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues
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Paul has over 20 years of macro investing experience. Paul founded View from the Peak in 2011, seeing a need for a truly global, multi-asset class research platform that integrates strategic thinking with a tactical overlay. Our clients include hedge funds, long only equity and fixed income managers, endowments, family offices and government agencies. The firm has offices in Hong Kong, Chicago and Washington D.C.
He was also the Managing Partner of Corus Capital Management, a multi-strategy Asian focused hedge fund based in New York. Prior to forming Corus in 2005, he was a global macro Portfolio Manager with Caxton Associates from 2000-2004 and a macro-execution trader with Moore Capital Management from 1998-2000. Paul's previous experience includes equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, and with Macquarie Bank in Sydney where he began his career. He holds a Bachelor of Economics and Politics from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.
