Macro Voices Podcasts

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• OPEC+ Production cut and the spring rally
• Flaws in the assumption that shut-in oil wells
• Decline rates – how does it work?
• Forecast on oil production – will it go up and what’s next?
• How much is the industry and its production hedged?

• Unaccounted for oil – why is there so much of it?
• Is the storage crisis really over?
• Recent recovery - are we back to pre-crisis consumption?

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We strongly recommend that you download the chartbook that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Diego Parrilla to MacroVoices. Erik and Diego discuss:

• How to interpret the strong market action despite the pandemic and civil unrest
• What’s next for US Dollar?
• Recent downside move in Gold – is this the time to buy? 
• Perspectives on the rapid recovery in oil prices
• Shift from deflation to inflation/stagflation – how long will this take?
• False diversification
• Likelihood of a risk parity unwind and its risks 

MacroVoices #190 Diego Parrilla: They'll change the rules to bail out the system 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Vikram Mansharamani to MacroVoices. Erik and Vikram discuss:

• What kind of recovery should we expect post-COVID19?
• Increasing civil unrest – what could that mean for investors?
• Will this “work from home” trend continue even after the crisis is over?
• What are the least obvious implications of this crisis?
• Impacts of the crisis on businesses and supply chains moving forward
• US/China geopolitical relations
• Perspective on the US dollar as the world reserve currency
• Implications of a secular shift from deflation/stagflation to inflation

Pre-order THINK FOR YOURSELF By Vikram Mansharamani 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

• Is now the time to focus on secular shift in precious metals?
• Secular shift to inflation or stagflation – what would that mean for precious metals?
• How does this pandemic compare to the recession of 2008
• The impact of weak commodities on precious metals
• Can gold substitute for bonds in portfolios?
• Impacts of strong USD on gold
• Perspectives on mining stocks
• Outlook on silver
• Bitcoin vs. Gold
• Are we due for a technical correction?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the report that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ronald will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

• What kind of recovery should we expect post-COVID19?
• Is this the top of the bear market rally or will we test new all-time highs again?
• Has the central banks largesse gone as far as it can go?
• Are we heading from secular deflation to secular inflation?
• Will the west’s indebtedness lead to “Japanification” 
• US dollar losing its reserve currency status – what would that entail?
• Gold outlook post-crisis
• Can all fiat currencies be devalued at the same time?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Daniel will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Ben Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

• Three narratives of Coronavirus crisis

• Is the recent monetary & fiscal response to COVID-19 leading us from deflation to inflation? 
• Will the Federal Reserve Act have to change?
• Frontline Heroes- how did it start and how can others help?

     Donate to Frontline Heroes  

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss:

• What cycle should we focus on amidst the crisis

• 3D’s of recession: Depth, Diffusion, Duration
• Exogenous shock factors: how is this recession different than others? 
• Based on historic cycles, what should we expect next?
• What can we learn from economic cycles as we try to get out of deflation?
• Is coronavirus crisis becoming a catalyst to a US/China “cold war”? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

• Core thesis on interest rates and inflation
• Constraints on zero bound interest rates in the US

• How do you invest in this zero bound interest rate environment?
• How to interpret FED policy on inflation
• Perspectives on the FED bailing out the high yield market
• Will the Federal Reserve be allowed to print money?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

• General market outlook
• Will the Fed put a floor on the stock market?
• Is the government’s response to COVID-19 crisis leading to secular inflation?
• Investment strategy to navigate ongoing market volatility
• Bond yields - is there really a zero lower limit?
• Impacts of COVID-19 crisis on emerging market equities
• Impending friction between US/China and its economic implications

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

Rosenberg Research 

30-Day Free Trial to Rosenberg Research 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

• Was the market dislocation inevitable or was it caused by the Coronavirus?
• Will there be even worse economic downturn due to governments bail-out policies?
• Risk-hedge long-vol portfolio management strategies
• The concept of trend following: how is it used?
• What are the consequences of the recent record-setting monetary stimulus?
• What limitations will central banks face if we move into a secular inflation environment 
• What are the major implications of the current economic state?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Crumb to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

• Current opportunities in gold market
• What is the range of possible prices for gold market
• Gold-Oil ratio: will the gold prices get brought down with oil?
• Important economic signals come from where people are hedging
• Is oil price constraining the gold price despite recent central bank policy actions
• What are the physical dislocations in the gold market due to COVID-19 impact?
• Is there a disconnect forming between physical and paper price of gold?
• Outlook on digital currency 
• Possibilities of global digital reserve currency 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

• This week’s unlimited QE by the FED and its implications
• Comparison of exogenous shocks vs. recession
• Are stocks and bonds both starting to sell off?
• Are treasuries moving up due to the FED buying up bonds?
• U.S. government’s reaction COVID-19 crisis and how will it impact asset markets

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

• Update on the COVID-19 
• The impact of the virus on the economy and markets
• Systemic risks to markets and impact on dealers
• Has the FED put has expired?
• Should the markets be shutdown, and what is the alternative?
• Breaking of the stock vs. bond correlation 
• Credit risks and the future impact on high yields 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir

The MacroTourist 

Kevin Muir Macro Tourist: Governments Are Panicking 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

• COVID-19 driving bonds to new all-time highs 
• What’s contributing to US Dollar breakdown?
• Why are treasury yields crashing and will it continue?
• What is the threshold for zero-bound treasury yield?
• Is it time to short high-yield and what are its risks?
• Perspectives on possible bail-out for shale oil producers
• Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the upcoming presidential elections
• Outlook on gold and gold mining shares
• FED’s emergency cut – what’s next? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

• Is COVID-19 the catalyst that changed the direction in the market?
• FED stimulus – how long will this bounce last?
• How much downside is expected in order to take excess buying out of the market
• Upside in the market caused by central bank response – what happens next?
• Will inflation return in the near future and what are its systemic risks
• Asset allocation strategy to accommodate the return of inflation
• Current buying opportunities in value investing 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

• 50-Year swap rate in negative territory
• Why the US treasury bond is no longer an investment and its systemic implications
• The upcoming daily liquidity crisis and it means for the market
• Complexity-based systemic risk alerts and tools to manage risks
• How to translate these concepts into actionable strategies
• Why is flash-crash is likely to happen
• Perspectives on economic impacts of COVID-19

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ralph Delguidice to MacroVoices. Erik and Ralph discuss:

• What are some knock-on implications of the US Treasury bond?
• Difference between Government money market funds vs. Prime money market funds
• Why treasury and investment grade bond demand flows will remain solid
• Declining German bunds in circulation
• The growing USD funding gap
• What are LCRs and why are they falling?
• The US treasury demand impact of Dodd Frank
• Knock-on implications as treasuries no longer being suitable as investments
• What are the implications of systemic risks?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ralph will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• 2020 Demand growth
• How oversold is the price of oil
• Over-reaction to Coronavirus effect on world oil demand?
• Flattening term structure in oil
• Comparing Brent and WTI 12-month spreads
• C.I. yield curve

 

 Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Art will refer to it throughout this interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir: Tesla's epic parabolic rise and blow-off top

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden and Dr. Chris Martenson to MacroVoices. Topics for discussion with Julian include:

• Does liquidity inflation asset prices
• Correlations between monetary policy and financial conditions
• Repo not QE? 
• Parabolic rise in equities not sustainable

Topics for discussion with Dr. Chris Martenson include:

• Will nCoV turn out to be worse than the 2003 SARS epidemic?
• What is Asymptomatic Transmission and R-naught; what are their significances?
• How should we be thinking about the Case Fatality Rate for nCov?
• How will nCoV impact the markets?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

• Why we should expect a credit crisis
• What countries will be affected by the systemic banking crisis and what are its potential risks
• What to expect for international capital flows 
• MMT and “helicopter money”- will it lead to inflation or deflation? 
• US duration risk – be prepared for the rules to change
• Implications and ramifications of helicopter money
• Negative interest rates - what to expect 
• Outlook on gold
• How to prepare for runaway inflation
• Perspectives on US/China trade war 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.