• MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

    MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

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  • MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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MVEnergyWeek8This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Massive drawdowns in crude oil and finished products in today’s EIA inventory report
  • Dwindling open interest in Brent+WTI (both long and short): Why are traders walking away from crude oil trades?
  • The PES Refinery Fire and its short- and long-term market implications
  • China Trade Talks, G20 and OPEC+

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss: 

  • Can Trump pull off a trade deal with China setting us up for a run into the election?
  • What do Middle Eastern tensions mean for markets?

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave weighs in on the protests which brought 25% of Hong Kongers to the streets and opines on the longer term outlook for the Chinese Yuan

  • Summary of the issues that led to the 2 million person protests in the streets of Hong Kong
  • Longer-term, Louis thinks investors should be more concerned about the risk of Yuan appreciation than the widely feared risk of yuan devaluation

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Greg Weldon to MacroVoices. Erik and Greg discuss:

  • Outlook on the dollar
  • The Fed as the world’s central bank
  • Demand vs. effectiveness of the dollar
  • Interest rate differentials and its correlation to the dollar
  • The Fed’s concern regarding the credibility of their inflation target
  • Outlook on gold
  • Commodity indicators as economic leading indicators
  • Risks of monetary policies in Europe
  • Term structures of grains
  • Outlook on geopolitics and oil
  • Gold vs. gold mining shares – where is the opportunity?

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MVEnergyWeek7This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on the tanker attacks and who might have been responsible
  • Pat Hemsworth on the marked changes in forward curves and open interest in recent weeks
  • Joe McMonigle on the OPEC+ meeting
  • Group discussion on tanker attacks, who benefits, who could have been responsible
  • Group discussion on OPEC+, G20, FOMC, and China Trade
  • Outlook for the week ahead from all panelists

 

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All-Star Professor Steve Keen recaps his recent trip to Sweden for the Central Bank Digital Currency conference, and commonts on Swedish and Nordic economic outlooks

  • Prof. Steve’s experience at the Central Bank Digital Currency Conference
  • Steve’s assessment of the Swedish economy
  • Outlook for the Nordic economies more broadly

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All-Star Juliette Declercq weighs in on what we can expect from this week's FOMC statement, and the disparity between equity and fixed income markets discounting different growth expectations. Also Yuan deval risk. 

  • Factors that will determine the Fed’s “reaction function”
  • Growth & Inflation outlook
  • Discrepancy between equity and fixed income markets in growth expectations
  • Powell’s Priorities: Curve Inversion or Financial Conditions?
  • China’s role in stabilizing the global economy
  • Risk of yuan devaluation

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DanielleAll-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: BRACE FOR IMPACT… The Fed is getting ready to launch NIRP!

  • Jay Powell replaced ‘zero lower bound’ in his lexicon with ‘EFFECTIVE lower bound’
  • This is no coincidence; Danielle says they’re getting markets ready for negative interest rates
  • But… wouldn’t that lead to cash hording? Do they have a plan for that?? (Spoiler alert: No, they don’t)
  • What to watch for in next week’s FOMC statement

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Update on U.S. Housing
  • Residential Construction % of GDP
  • U.S. home affordability remains favorable
  • Rate Shock Redux
  • Lagged effects of rising rates
  • Canadian real estate 
  • Swelling mortgage debt in Canada
  • Deterring foreign ownership
  • Deteriorating household finances 
  • Exposure for the Canadian banks 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Pete Wargent: Update on Australian Housing Marketmale silhouette

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Commercial broker Pat Hemsworth, former regulator Chris Cook, and petroleum geologist Art Berman

  • How can natural gas be in backwardation (Jul-Aug’19) in the summertime, when contango is the norm?
  •  The energy price sell-off has continued even as the stock market has mostly recovered. What’s next for energy prices?

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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