• MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

    MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

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  • MacroVoices Podcast with Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Welcome to Macro Voices

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male silhouette.This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Ole Hansen, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth. 

  • There’s been a disturbance in the force! (market roller-coaster ride)
  • Is this about energy fundamentals or the stock market driving energy market direction?
  • Where is the market headed from here?
  • Iran military conflict scenario: Is it really bullish for oil prices?
  • Signposts to watch in the week ahead

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All-Star Luke Gromen: There’s reason to think the U.S. Dollar is topping here

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Luke Gromen. Luke says that the Fed Funds rate moving stubbornly over IOER is a clear sign that the Fed will soon be forced to supply more dollar liquidity, a bearish sign given current sentiment extremes.

  • It’s possible both stocks AND bonds have it right, and the USD has it wrong
  • Fed Funds moving above IOER “isn’t supposed to happen”
  • This is a real-time indicator that USA is headed for a fiscal crisis
  • The Fed will be forced to resume balance sheet expansion soon
  • Boston Fed governor Lael Brainard’s comments about targeting long-term UST rates

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All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren : Geopolitics is increasingly important for investors!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Dr.Pippa Malmgren. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • U.S.-China Trade Talks and the Huawei debacle
  • Populism winning European Elections (and spreading elsewhere)
  • U.S.-Iran Situation

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KevinMuirArticle

All-Star Kevin Muir says the market is way ahead of the Fed in pricing in easing!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Kevin Muir. Erik and Kevin discuss:

  • Kevin says the market is way ahead of the Fed pricing in accommodative monetary policy
  • Kevin thinks bond longs betting on economic collapse will be disappointed
  • Skew in Eurodollar futures offers trading opportunity
  • Fixed income vol is dirt cheap relative to equity vol
  • Why shorting an INDEX is the wrong way to play a bearish view on U.S./China trade negotiations

Kevin Muir MacroTourist Chartbook

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Greenwood to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Where are we in the business cycle and what comes next?
  • The mechanics of what really drives the cycle
  • Understanding the importance of broad money
  • Relationship of money growth and GDP
  • The signs at the end of the business cycle
  • The role the debt plays in the business cycle
  • Money supply measured by M2/M3
  • Money and the shadow banking system
  • Broad money growth vs. inflation average

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and John will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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male silhouette.This week's panelists: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Anas Alhajji on pricing oil in USD vs. other currencies
  • Pat Hemsworth on finished product inventories as refinery maintenance season winds downTopic 3
  • Art Berman on sustainability/growth of U.S. shale production
  • Iran/Geopolitical Risk Update
  • Why are front-month oil prices trading flat-to-down even as backwardation steepens in forward curves?
  • Brent-WTI Spread: What’s driving it to such a wide discount ($9.49 as of today’s close), and what comes next?

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Professor SteveKeen, who weighs in on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom. Steve says Vague has it exactly right, and his analysis of what caused 2008’s Great Financial Crisis jibes almost exactly with Steve’s own analysis of that event.

 Prof. Steve Keen's Article on Richard Vague's book (PDF) 

or on his website: A Brief History of Doom: The New Kindleberger and Mackay

 

 

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All-Star Juliette Declercq on Populism

Juliette Declercq believes the surprise outcome of the Australian elections is an important signal as the global populist movement calls for more socialism, yet Australia’s Labor Party was defeated in a surprise ‘upset’ election. Juliette examines the costs of socialism and concludes that deficit spending can continue indefinitely, until inflation re-emerges as a macro risk

 

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All-Star Brent Johnson: Much higher stock prices possible

Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson says that U.S. Dollar appreciation could make U.S. stocks (yes, stocks, not treasuries) the preferred safe-haven asset for foreign investors who’ll realize a double-return from investing in U.S. stocks in an appreciating U.S. Dollar macro environment where the return on the stock’s appreciation is enhanced by the foreign exchange performance of the investor’s conversion from his local currency into USD in order to purchase U.S. equities

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Variant Perception data driven approach
  • Something's got to give
  • Where leading indicators are pressuring USD
  • Outlook on US equities and bonds
  • Perspective on the Fed's cut to its IOER
  • Collateral, lending conditions and tighter bank-credits
  • China, liquidity and growth
  • External headwinds remain growth impediment

 

 

 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (59.61 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (146 KB)
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Macro Voices Videos

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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