Welcome to Macro Voices

Erik Townsend welcomes Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

• The US Dollar backstory and how central bank policy divergence got us here
• US government bonds and the potential for interest rates to move much lower
• Weak growth in the US and a business cycle that is appearing to roll over
• The risks of loaning money to insolvent governments in the form of sovereign bonds
• Changing our operating framework to better understand a changing global macro picture
• Gold and real estate becoming hedges to the currency risk involved with negative interest rates
• Gold's ability to rally in the face of potential further Dollar strength
• The European banking system and "CoCo Bonds"
• The ban on cash and the real reasons the powers that be are moving in this direction
• "The Big Uglies" and what could trigger an economic recession
• Which forms further monetary or fiscal stimulus could take, and more...

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Erik Townsend welcomes Bill Fleckenstein to MacroVoices. Erik and Bill discuss:

• A coming correction in equities - what's different this time?
• "The fumes of QE" and non-US sources of liquidity
• The tactics one must necessarily employ to succed in short selling
• 20 years of failed activist Fed policy
• A potential bond market revolt and an end to the dollar bull market
• The real rate of inflation and the irrelevance of the CPI
• The destruction of the middle class by central bankers and politicians
• The time to be short vs. the time to be patient
• Gold, gold miners, and the end of the bear market in precious metals
• Plus Erik's market recap and his own insights into short selling
• and plenty more...

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Real Vision interviews Fred Hickey on September 18th, 2015

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jack Schwager to MacroVoices. Erik and Jack discuss:

• The history of the Market Wizards project
• The importance of finding your "own process" in achieving success in trading
• Discipline, risk management, organization, perseverance 
• The range of possible successful approaches an investor or trader can take
• Early failure not necessarily being predicitive of future success/failure, learning from mistakes
• Mr. Schwager's own experience interviewing traders who have been widely influenced by his early books
• The genesis and mission of FundSeeder.com
• Finding new ways of linking capital with talented traders and changing the business of capital introduction
• The technologies that could ultimately provide disruptions in the capital allocation space
• Assisting an amateur trader in making the leap to full-time professional, and more...

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Erik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

• The ECB, Fed, and BOJ statements and how policies are shifting
• The upward trajectory of the Euro following a confusing ECB statement
• The key differences between central banking in the US, and the Eurozone
• TLTRO2: "a funding for lending scheme" - how does it work, what does it mean?
• A potential bottoming in European interest rates
• Will a Fed rate hike mean a stronger dollar, or have markets already priced this in?
• The Fed members, structure, focus and process
• Coming headwinds for asset prices as the Fed unwinds an unprecedented easing cycle
• The counterproductivity of negative interest rates and extraordinary central bank policy
• The Dollar rally - how did we get here and is the rally over?
• Gold and other "safe havens" - where can investors hide in this challenging environment?

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Real Vision interviews Albert Edwards on February 27th, 2015

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Erik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

• The likelihood of a US recession
• The unsustainability of global credit growth
• The continuing erosion of faith in central bankers
• The response to negative interest rates in Japan
• The excesses promised by politicians to citizens of Western Democracies
• "The Consequences of Economic Peace" 
• Big Cyles, Kondratieff Waves, The Laws of Nature
• The similarity between current times and the lead up to WWI
• Thinking about outcomes we'd rather not and assigning probabilities accordingly
• The Real Vision TV backstory and their goals in bringing some truth back to financial journalism
• and more...

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pdf Click here to download Grant’s “Duck Test” presentation in PDF form (1.26 MB)

Click here for a link to Grant’s video presentation; 'The Consequences of Economic Peace'

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Nathan Egger interviews Erik Townsend about trading strategies for the coming bottom in oil prices. Erik and Nathan discuss:

• A summary of the oil market fundamentals, as Erik sees it
• Potential counter-arguments to Erik's view
• How the "smart money" should be playing this coming bottom including; tanker trade, shipping container trade, etc
• How a commodities trader should be approaching a turn in the oil market including; contract selection, term structure, options
• Trading a reversal in crude oil from a fixed income manager's perspective - long/short strategies, potential contagions
• Other potential risks to credit markets
• An equity manager's view of an upcoming bottom - who will be the winners/losers, ETFs
• Strategies a retail investor can employ to gain exposure to the coming rebound in oil - contango-related risks to ETFs like USO
• The need for patience, regardless of which type of investor you may be
• Listener questions posed either in the forums, or by emailing questions to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
• and plenty more...

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Erik Townsend welcomes geologist and energy industry consultant Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• The crude oil backstory and the current oversupply
• The likelihood of a future production cut from OPEC
• Middle Eastern politics and how they will affect future oil prices
• EIA/IEA and other government agency statistics - Are they reliable?
• Oil storage considerations and the importance of Cushing, OK - How close are we to capacity?
• The Baker Hughes Rig Count - Does it matter?
• Iran and their ongoing production increases
• The US shale patch operators and their associated junk bonds - What is the chance of widespread default?
• Production decline rates for US shale producers
• Libya’s potential to affect this market - ISIS standing in the way?
• Identifying a bottom in the oil market and a whole lot more…

pdf Click here for supplementary material from Art Berman (1.64 MB)

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Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Marc Faber to MacroVoices. Erik and Marc discuss:

• The Fed, Treasury, and U.S. Government are one and the same - Neo-Keynesian Interventionists
• Negative interest rates, and the possibility of seeing them in The U.S.
• "The War on Cash" and other trends driving insecurity and leading to increased rates of saving
• "Helicopter Money" and other Fed options for direct stimulus to spenders
• The political forces driving huge foreign investment in Indochina
• The contrast between the great Asian success stories, and the failures of other emerging markets
• India, its potential, particularly for stock pickers, and the problems it faces
• "China Beach," Vietnamese real estate, and the difficulties of investing in many Asian nations
• The inevitable deflating of the "Chinese credit bubble"
• Kyle Bass' outsized bet against the Yuan
• Precious metals, gold mining stocks, and much, much more

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