Macro Voices Podcasts

An interview which was originally aired on June 2, 2016, between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Edward Misrahi, Goldman Sachs alumni and founder of Eton Park.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 4. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the final part of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• Definition and origins of the hedge fund
• Whether active managers are able to outperform the market
• Impediments to investing in the "top name" hedge funds
• Various hedge fund strategies
• How to learn and gather more information on hedge funds
• CTA's and managed futures commodity pools
• Fund of funds

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An interview which was originally published on August 2, 2016, between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Paul J. Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3A. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and David discuss:

• Background and introduction to angel investing and entrepreneurship through his great uncle David Rose
• What angel investing actually is, how it might fit in a portfolio, and who it is suited for
• The time-horizon, temperament, and risk-tolerance required for angel investing
• The appropriate mind-set when approaching angel investing
• Expected investment returns from angel investing and the role of diversification
• Why it's “far better to invest in the jockey than on the horse”
• Balancing and matching between entrepreneurial execution and bright ideas
• Mechanics and funding sequence of an angel deal
• Post-investment lifecycle
• The importance of networking with veteran angel investors prior to initial investments
• How the Angel Capital Association vets angel investing groups
• Learning through reading, finding a mentor, and investing
• Gust.com angel investing platform, Singularity University and exponential technology

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• The definition of angel investing
• Profile of a successful angel investor
• Professionally-managed alternative investment vehicles
• Mechanics and nuances involved with investing in alternative vehicles
• Difference between con men and the true outperformers
• Investment minimums and investor quotas in 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) funds
• Origins of the 2/20 fee structure and appropriate due diligence
• Particulars of venture capital and private equity limited partnerships
• Benefits of getting marketing material from funds

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An interview which was originally published on April 29, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Jawad Mian, Founder and Managing Editor of Stray Reflections, a global macro research and trading advisory with a focus on major investment themes and actionable trade ideas.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
• Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
• Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
• China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
• Peak central bank omnipotence
• Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
• Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
• Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
• U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
• Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency
• Real Vision Publications Homepage and Launch Video

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Professor Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

• How Trump might be the most Keynesian President since Reagan
• Possibility of a recession occurring before U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented
• Private debt level's inability to absorb higher rates
• Prospects for a debt jubilee and subsequent credit boom
• Implementation and distribution of debt jubilee as "people's QE"
• Unconstrained QE from central banks
• European Union disintegration making Lehman look like a picnic
• Knock-on effects from European Union disintegration
• Last gasps of neoliberalism evidenced by upcoming UK university classification system

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means
• Production cut being more akin to a floor than a ceiling
• False conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market
• How excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come
• Weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices
• Resumption of U.S. production in response to higher prices
• OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media
• Weakening global economy as the main driver for low oil prices

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the second of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• The process of re-inventing oneself from running a company as an entrepreneur to managing and running money
• Skillset required for investing versus entrepreneurship
• Resources for re-educating yourself into a sophisticated investor
• Options in alternative financial media
• The utility of financial and private investor conferences and groups
• The different categories of private investors and the work required
• How to take a more active role in managing your own investments
• Difference between an asset allocator and a full-time investor

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An interview which was originally published on April 8, 2016 between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Fund Management Plc.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

• The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election 
• Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
• Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
• Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
• The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
• Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
• U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
• Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
• Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
• Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
• China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
• China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
• 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
• State of the global commodities supercycle
• Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss:

• Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail
• What Trump's dollar-spend per voter portends for the moneyed lobbyists
• Sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory
• The long-running trend of repressive economic conditions and Fed policy leading to unrest
• The potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate
• Whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary
• Constitutional limitations pertaining to specific policies espoused by Trump during the campaign
• Outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico
• The big picture behind the global populist movement and where it might be headed next
• Breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements

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An interview which was originally published on October 18, 2015 between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry & Behavioral Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Willem Middelkoop to MacroVoices. Erik and Willem discuss:

• Willem's recent book The Big Reset and the coming monetary reset
• The role the IMF's SDR will play in the next monetary reset
• China's strategic objectives and pushing for the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency
• Outlook for the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status in a Big Reset scenario
• Outlook for the coming secular commodity reflation cycle
• Willem's call to buy precious metals and miners in January 2016
• Gold outlook in the current macroeconomc and geopolitical environment
• Long-run dynamics of monetary history, demographics, and revolution
• Whether Western democracy is still viable
• Alternative forms of government given China's 5000-year history as a civilization
• Trump vs. Clinton Presidencies and potential market impacts

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

• USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment
• Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU
• What the German-Italian sovereign spread portends for EU disintegration probabilities
• Prescriptions for Japan given much greater cultural and political homogeneity
• Evolution of views on developed market equities
• The "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses
• Global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE
• Opinions on QE's efficacy at avoiding an outright global depression
• Government's inability or unwillingness to move on fiscal reform and stimulus
• Where US TSY's are headed next
• Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis
• Maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications

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An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss:

• Technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets
• Hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational
• Central bank intervention and impact across various cycles
• Potential panicked selloff for the trade-weighted U.S. dollar
• Outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes
• Treasury outlook and relationship with longer-term cycles
• Developed markets on-going secular decline despite record equity market
• Emerging market equity outlook, in particular China and India
• Gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs
• Technological and demogrpahic tailwinds for developed markets
• Trump vs. Clinton impacts on markets

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar
• The "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000
• Central banks running out of rope and credibility
• Misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers
• Rumored Deutsche Bank "white knights" in Qatar and China
• Political and social implications for foreign ownership of the European banking system
• Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce
• Investment opportunities in other emerging market economics in light of weak dollar thesis
• Potential longs in the oil and gas space following the supply shock in prices
• Dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation
• Yield-enhancement, short-VIX strategies employed by pension funds
• Trump vs. Clinton implications for financial markets

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An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

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