Macro Voices Podcasts

A conversation on January 26, 2016 between Grant Williams and James Grant, author of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

• Grant’s experience and insights from observing Brexit outside of the UK
• The next-steps and long-run view for the UK post-Brexit
• The potential of the EU making an example out of the UK to prevent other countries from leaving
• The current political void in British politics and who might step-up to fill this void
• The precarious state of the European banking system
• Deutsche Bank’s status as “Too Big to Fail”
• How Brexit will spread political contagion and stoke calls for referenda in other European countries
• The likelihood of the Fed having to ease with only 25 bps of room
• What the dollar and gold both moving higher portends for the state of the global economy
• The non-zero probability of war as a means of resolving unsurmountable debt burdens
• Possible war scenarios under Trump or Clinton
• Grant’s wonderfully-done “Crazy” presentation on RVTV

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Erik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

• Brexit's economic consequences and possible political spillover into other European countries
• Ditching the ivory tower in favor of working with entrepreneurs
• The emergence of alternative currencies backed by labor and assets
• The possibility of an energy-backed currency
• The fundamental ingredient of trust in alternative currencies
• The risk of entrusting private enterprise with money creation
• Negative interest rates and fractional reserve banking
• Fading mainstream confidence in neoclassical central bankers
• Possible catalysts for the next financial crisis

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A conversation on May 23, 2016 between Grant Williams and Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Toqueville Bullion Reserve.

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Erik Townsend welcomes John Llewellyn to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

• How the Brexit vote is simply a prelude to a highly uncertain process
• Polling accuracy and the distinct possibility of Britain exiting the EU
• The near-term economic impacts of Brexit on the British economy including lower foreign-direct investment and trade re-negotiations
• The broader global economic impact of a “leave” vote
• Brexit’s impact on the U.S. Dollar and the possibility of re-igniting a Asian debt crisis
• Potential monetary policy accommodation from the ECB
• The implications of Brexit on global oil prices
• Rise of European populism as a leading indicator of the U.S. political theatre

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Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Ben Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

• The U.S. Dollar as a reflection of the strategic interactions between central banks
• China’s similarities to pre-WW1 Germany as an up-and-coming power
• Brexit’s potential impact on the global economy
• “Humpty Dumpty” events for the global economy including China devaluation and Euro-system fracturing
• Price-signal inversion and market dislocation from fundamentals
• The Fed’s slow realization of global interdependence
• Negative interest rate money-market funds in the United States
• How Swiss safe deposit boxes are at capacity and the war on cash
• Gold’s role as insurance against central bankers
• Kyle Bass’ China trade and whether you can trade Japan’s demographics
• The potential consequences of the U.S. Presidential elections and global trade
• Dr. Hunt’s background as a hedge fund manager and scholar
• The inception of his popular Epsilon Theory Blog and applying game-theory to policy-driven markets

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Hugh Hendry is interviewed by Raoul Pal for Real Vision Television on March 11th, 2016

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Their calls made on Episode 3 of MacroVoices in February
• Which fundamental factors have changed since then
• The damage done to the supply of capital available to shale drillers in spite of oil rising to $50
• Current US production levels and where they may be headed from here
• Prices moving up in the face of dangerously high inventory levels at Cushing, OK
• Using Comparitive Inventories to predict price movements
• The 'funny' accounting practiced by shale drilling companies and many analysts
• EIA price forecasts and whether or not they are accurate
• Geopolitically driven supply disruptions and whether or not they will last
• Middle Eastern oil production increases and alongside a shifting political picture
• The possibility of a future where the world can't afford petroleum, and much more...

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Erik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• The difference between the DXY and the trade weighted broad Dollar index
• The effect of emerging market fluctuations on the broad Dollar
• Dollar pause or Dollar reversal?
• The return of cyclical inflation in the US
• Chinese capital outflows and the effect on real estate markets
• How the Dollar story will affect precious metals
• Emerging market equites
• A lack of real cooperation between central banks
• Global sovereign debt markets and what they are signaling about inflation
• How a perfect storm of Dollar strength and a return of inflation will take away the central bank "put"
• ...and bunches upon bunches more...

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A conversation on March 25th, 2016 between Grant Williams and Rick Rule

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The advantages held by the US over other economies
• The reasons for the recent USD strength and where it is headed next
• The market reaction to the most recent round of hawkishness from the Fed
• The Gold market internals which have supported its price in 2016, and the possibility of a pullback
• The relevance of the Commitments of Traders report in the Gold market
• What institutional positioning in precious metals tells us about liquidity flows
• Platinum, Palladium, their extraction methods and uses, their relationship to each other and other PMs
• Where we are currently in the broader commodities cycle
• The problems facing China, Japan, and Europe
• Economic, social, and political issues in Russia
• Possibilities for Gold and non-USD currencies playing a bigger role in central bank reserves, and more...

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Erik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

• A comparison of the prevailing schools of economic thought
• The role of credit in the economy
• The importance of existing inventory when considering supply and demand calculations
• What's wrong with neoclassical economics and how central bank policy needs to adapt
• How Professor Keen was able to foresee the 2008 financial crisis
• The mistake of mainstream economics in ignoring the importance of private sector debt
• Low credit growth leading to a stangant economy
• "Zombie Economies" and which countries are most likely to suffer another crisis
• How to know if you're living in a Zombie Economy
• The need to reduce private debt, and the ways to incentivize such a reduction
• Plus Samir Madani joins us to discuss #OOTT and much more

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A conversation on February 19th, 2016 between Raoul Pal and Grant Williams, co-founders of Real Vision Television.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

• The ECB, Fed, and BOJ statements and how policies are shifting
• The upward trajectory of the Euro following a confusing ECB statement
• The key differences between central banking in the US, and the Eurozone
• TLTRO2: "a funding for lending scheme" - how does it work, what does it mean?
• A potential bottoming in European interest rates
• Will a Fed rate hike mean a stronger dollar, or have markets already priced this in?
• The Fed members, structure, focus and process
• Coming headwinds for asset prices as the Fed unwinds an unprecedented easing cycle
• The counterproductivity of negative interest rates and extraordinary central bank policy
• The Dollar rally - how did we get here and is the rally over?
• Gold and other "safe havens" - where can investors hide in this challenging environment?

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Erik Townsend welcomes Satyajit Das to MacroVoices. Erik and Das discuss:

• The US as the cleanest shirt in a very dirty laundry basket of economies, and what it portends for the USD
• Emerging market debt and how it should be dealt with if interest rates rise
• The difference between a cuclical downturn and a structural shift, and how policy should respond
• The problem with "emergency measures" becoming permanent policy
• A global population obsessed with perpetual incremental improvements to living standards
• Negative interest rates as a form of taxation
• Malinvestment in China, and how it exacerbates the global debt problem
• How China might deal with this round of over-indebtedness, and what's different this time
• How the global economy will be impacted by a slowdown and shift in focus in China
• Gold as a currency, as a hedge, and as a "matter of faith"
• The potential for the entire global economy to "turn Japanese" 

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Erik Townsend welcomes Richard Duncan to MacroVoices. Erik and Richard discuss:

• The events in world world history which have led to increased government spending and record debt
• The catalysts that made everything "pop" in 2008
• How QE works, who benefits from it, and how likely it is to persist
• The results of having a government directed economic system for over 76 years
• Unique conditions which allowed extraordinary policy from the Fed, and how the US could capitalize on them
• The looming threat of war increasing due to a "need" for increased government spending
• The alternative forms of government spending we could see in lieu of war
• The possibility, and likely futility of "helicopter money"
• Why we won't see the end of the USD's role as world reserve currency anytime soon
• And fistfuls of more good stuff...

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Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank on March 6th, 2015

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Erik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

• Rick’s general thesis on precious metals and how they differ from other natural resources

• The relative predictability of commodities due to their cyclicality

• The spectacular returns available to investors who can be brave when others are fearful

• The value of contrarian information when markets are out of favor

• The value of private placement and P.I.P.E. investments

• Rick’s personal investment strategies at the current time

• The dangers and importance of identifying conflicts of interest in investing

• The resources available to investors to help them protect themselves against frauds

• Erik and Art Berman bring us up to speed on the US crude oil inventory situation, and what fundamental factors may have changed moving the market still higher

• Art warns that this rally may have been about the market pricing in looming supply risks, and more...

• Register for free at the top of this page to have Art's powerpoint presentation sent to you by email

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

• Gold as a currency, rather than an investment, because "earning yield requires taking risk"

• The USD rally and the Fed’s influence on its ability to continue

• The difference between a central bank’s ability to cure inflation, vs. curing deflation

• The possibilities of confiscation, taxation, and NIRP and their effects on the relative attractiveness of Gold

• The Fed first tightening into weakness, and now turning more dovish after a market correction in early 2016

• The reasons why governments can’t tolerate inflation

• Gold as a potential hedge against deflation, as well as inflation

• How QE actually functions, and why we’ve seen so little effect on the real economy

• What the next form of stimulus may look like, and how it may affect the outlook on Gold

• The necessity for structural solutions, not monetary solutions, to structural problems

• What an increase in institutional holdings of Gold would mean for price, and plenty more...

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