Welcome to Macro Voices

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

• Current outlook on the U.S. dollar
• Shift of funding in the U.S. deficits
• U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”
• Treasury bonds trading like a risky asset
• Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance
• Emerging market considerations
• China accelerating global de-dollarization
• U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran
• Gold and the gold/oil ratio
• How to trade the second half of 2018

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Discussed this week:

Dr. Ellen Wald

• Saudi Arabia's perspective on the oil markets?
• Perspective about Saudi Aramco
• Understanding Mohammad bin Salman
• Social Politics in Saudi Arabia
  

Anas Alhajji & Joe McMonigle

• What is driving the oil markets right now?
• Considerations on the Iranian sanctions
• Insights into next week’s OPEC meeting
• Bigger picture geopolitical outlook for the oil markets
• How to interpret the backwardation on oil?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik, Anas and Joe will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Big picture outlook on bonds, interest rates and inflation
• Considerations on the treasury COT reports
• Is there a recession coming in the U.S.?
• How much upside on the U.S. Dollar?
• Is the trade being short global high yield bonds?
• How does the economy deal with higher rates and inflation?
• Bullish outlook on gold?
• Investing into commodities and commodity funds

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss:

• Why has QE never led to runaway inflation?
• How has the market been propped up for 10 years without consequence?
• What does the ECB own today?
• The bank of Japan, their program and what it contains?
• Central banks around the world and how they compare?
• When does tapering occur on a global scale?

For the second featured interview Erik Townsend welcomes Pat Hemsworth to discuss:

• Why Saudi Arabia and Russia can’t make up their minds about oil prices?
• Iran sanctions, expectations and what they mean?
• Venezuela, production and what is next?
• OPEC, faking it till they make it?
• What is the forward curve telling us about the market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Pat will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss:

• Has the bond bear market started?
• What are the opposing views?
• Shorting high yield debt and junk credit
• Where to be on the yield curve right now
• Will America ever be able to repay the debt?
• Where is the point of no return on debt?
• Considerations on global over indebtedness
• Endgame on the systemic problem of debt
• Inflation expectations

 SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: KEVIN MUIR DISCUSSING THE CURRENT BOND MARKETS

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• Outlook on the U.S. Dollar for 2018
• Do rate differentials matter?
• Has there been a regime shift?
• Is equity risk premium just catching up to higher real yields?
• How does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative?
• What has happened this year in the U.S. dollar?
• Tactical considerations on a new U.S. dollar short
• Market positioning on the interim
• Can surprising strength in U.S. economy change the outlook?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: TG MACRO'S TONY GREER

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

• The corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market
• The Hong Kong dollar peg
• China’s debt and related risks
• The risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously
• “The Upcoming Monetary War, With Gold as An Arbiter”
• Gold bullish vs bearish
• The return of secular inflation
• What happened in the 70’s with inflation?
• Preparing for the return of secular inflation

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

• Deflationary risks in the U.S. 
• Context on current higher inflation prints
• How high are risks of a credit event
• Contagion risk if China “sneezes”
• Consideration on the impact of higher rates
• Do we still need a world reserve currency?
• Is there a concern of the US government not being able to fund itself?
• Impact of the global de-dollarization trend
• What is in store for the gold markets?
• What do investors need to consider in the current environment?
• What comes next for the equity markets?
• Impact on emerging market and junk bond markets
• The falling Yen and its impact on Japan

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Considerations on uranium exports to from Russia to the US
• What options does the US have for new uranium sources?
• Is there an investment play for uranium?
• Electric vehicles and why they’ll be a dominant trend over the coming years
• Why is copper a key component, and how to play it during this trend
• Is copper a sole source material for EV or is there an alternative?
• Will more efficient electric vehicles require more or less copper?
• The copper industry and its ability to scale up
• The investment play for copper and uranium prices going up

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider to the show. Discussed this week:

Harley Bassman: 

• How will we know when the real bear market is on?
• The implicit and explicit VOL trade and how long will it take to play out?
• How will a bond sell off impact inflation?
• The USD over then next few years

Mark Cudmore: 

• Is this a correction or something much bigger?
• The USD and the recent sideways consolidation, what does it mean?
• Outlook for the bond market
• Commodities, China, Europe and EM
• Current stress on the Hong Kong Dollar

Jeffrey Snider:

• Where are the equity markets headed?
• What is going on with the Hong Kong Dollar?
• Principles of a “Dollar Short”

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview with Harley Bassman. Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Darius Dale to MacroVoices. Erik and Darius discuss:

• The U.S. growth cycle and its peak
• Considerations on inflation
• Earnings outlook for the rest of the year
• Global divergence reiterated
• Prognostications vs the reality of the markets
• China’s massive credit expansion
• One final leg in the dollar?
• USD breakdown in currency and interest differentials

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Darius will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

• Considerations on the equity markets
• Post-crash dynamics
• Medium-term drivers of the U.S. Dollar
• Has something fundamentally changed in the U.S. treasury markets?
• Where is the yield curve going?
• TED and LIBOR OIS spreads
• Outlook on the Canadian economy
• Context on the Chinese economic outlook
• Has the Japanese economy peaked?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• How do things look in today’s market?
• What is on the horizon for inflation?
• Risks of runaway inflation
• What comes next for equities?
• Are the market highs in already?
• What if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go?
• US Dollar structural issues
• What is causing the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds?
• What levels should we be watching on the US Dollar?
• Where to focus the bond short

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

• What does the yield curve tell us?
• US Treasury Curve
• Changes from an Era of Fed Funds Rate Targeting
• Reflections on the 2006-2009 curves
• Reflation trends in the post GFC
• Deconstructing Rates
• Negative Term Premiums
• Market Inflation Expectations
• Eurodollar Futures & Effective Money
• Central Bank Failure
• This Flat Curve is the Bad One

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

• Is this the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation?
• What is the reason that we have a back up of interest rates?
• How far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks?
• With China’s banking assets now at 44 trillion how will this end?
• Is inflation coming and what are the consequences?
• What were some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year?

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST AND CO-HOST - Kevin Muir – market strategist at East West Investment Management and author of the MacroTourist. We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies the post game interview as Erik and Kevin will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

• The state of the FED under J Powell 
• What to make of rising treasury yields?
• How far can the FED go before something breaks?
• Outlook on Inflation
• Perspective on gold
• What can be the outcome of such a massive credit expansion?
• Shorting junk bonds
• What drivers of long term cycles and what can we expect to see next?
• What happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920?
• Considerations on what actions the government can take to deal with the debt

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them
• What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done today?
• The gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes”
• What happened to gold in the 2008 crisis
• What caused gold to turn at the end of 2008
• Why do central banks still hold gold after 2008 and why are others not?
• Why did gold peak in 2011 and what was so bearish about it in 2013?
• How do dollar index futures fit into the gold story?
• How has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?
• How will gold play out if the dollar continues to slide
• Topic nnInterbank lending statistics discontinued, what does it mean

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

• Why focus on investing natural resources?
• Using top down macro in resource investing
• Rare earths and lithium 
• What resources should investors focus on?
• Uranium and nuclear energy
• Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
• Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
• Water as a commodity
• China and the future of rare earths

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Erik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

• Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
• Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
• Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
• Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
• Stagflation and inflation risks
• Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
• Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
• Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
• Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

• Drivers of this stock market drop
• Is higher volatility here to stay?
• The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
• Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
• Where are the markets heading from here? 
• Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
• Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
• Dollars relationship to gold
• Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Reflecting on the current oil market
• Where are the comparative inventories
• OPEC decisions and actions dominating price
• Context on OPEC production cuts
• How much new oil is coming from higher prices
• Economics on the shale oil fields
• Perspective on US oil exports
• Exports primary reason behind U.S. inventory reductions
• Underinvestment in exploration and development

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Energy Markets Commercial Broker Patricia Hemsworth to discuss producer hedging, WTI/Brent spreads and the forward curve price dynamics.

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Outlook for the US dollar for 2018
• Are rate differentials going to impact the dollar move?
• Considerations on the Yuan oil contract
• Is the bond bull market over?
• Low inflation vs. stagnation
• Is the oil rally sustainable?
• Outlook on the commodity markets
• Considerations on the equity markets
• Perspectives on China’s economy
• Will the European Union survive?
• Outlook for the Euro currency
• Bullish emerging markets and currencies

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Erik Townsend welcomes Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

• Macro drivers of the Canadian and Australian real estate markets
• Canada’s "Minsky Moment"
• Turning up the heat with policies
• Impact on Canadian Banks
• Australian one-cylinder economy
• Perspective on the Australian construction boom
• Negative gearing in Australia and home equity withdrawal
• Considerations on U.S. real estate
• There is still room to run in the U.S. markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Josh will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 5 of the 5 Part Series, the panel discuss the possible outcomes:

• What sign posts for the big change?
• Potential triggers for a lower U.S. dollar
• Can structural changes be implemented
• Which investment assets will work the best?
• Which investment assets will work the worst?
• Considerations on investment portfolios

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 4 of the 5 Part Series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present:

• Gold as a Reserve Asset
• Gold/Oil Ratio
• Bypassing the US Dollar
• Dollar shortage caused by oil price
• Deficits starting to matter
• U.S. losing its status as a hegemonic power
• Logistics in replacing the U.S. System
• How does the end of Dollar Hegemony occur?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 3 of the 5 part series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present: 

• U.S. Dollar Cyclical Pattern
• Looking at the Dollar Technicals
• Is there room for one more rally?
• Gold and the Oil for Yuan Plan
• Impacts to Emerging Markets
• Demographics, Deflation and Lower Rates
• Welcome to Multi-Polar FX World
• China and Russia’s end-game strategy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 2 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

• The post 2007 U.S. Dollar shortage
• How does the dollar scarcity play out?
• Problems facing China at the moment
• Considerations on China’s gold buying
• Is a RMB crypto currency possible?
• Do American politicians even know there is a problem?
• Dollar short squeeze not a U.S. Dollar bull
• Global De-dollarization

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 1 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

• Overview of the big picture story
• Perspectives on where we are today
• Bulls vs. Bears (nobody wins)
• Bank of Russia operations in FX repo auctions
• Brazilian Real and the US dollar funding
• China’s management of the US dollar
• The evolving Chinese response

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

• Reflecting on the 2008 crisis
• What is going to go wrong with the current credit cycle
• False narratives around QE and bank reserves
• Where is the risk to correction in asset pricing?
• Walking dead of debt and the zombies to be
• Considerations on Japan, Canada and China
• How long does this debt cycle last?
• Will the next crisis be more wide spread?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Steve will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• US Economy Late in the Cycle
• China’s Macro Landscape
• Where is Inflation Heading?
• Caution on equities 2018
• Direction for 10year Bonds
• The US Yield Curve and Potential Recession
• When has the Fed gone too far?
• Changing of the guard at the FED
• USD bearish outlook

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Saudi Arabia Politics
• The power shift in the Middle East
• Petrodollar and the Yuan oil contract
• Considerations on American oil
• Understanding the OPEC and Russia relationship
• Saudi Aramco IPO
• Future of electric vehicle market
• The outlook on uranium
• Understanding global uranium enrichment
• Future of Russia and Vladimir Putin

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Erik Townsend welcomes Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

• Measuring the equity bubble
• Measuring the bond bubble
• What could be the catalyst be for the reversal?
• Fake market narrative
• Chasing narratives and global growth
• Positive feedback loops
• ETFs and their impact on the markets
• Systemic risks from funds not just banks
• Considerations on European junk bonds
• S&P values vs. share buybacks
• Risks to the market from the short VOL trade

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: The Macro Tourist Kevin Muir discussing bonds, inflation and the coming collapse of the short VIX trade. 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

• Bullish narrative on equities 
• Valuation is not a catalyst
• Trends in growth and inflation
• Where are we in the economic cycle
• Global economic divergences
• Growth acceleration puts a lid on market multiples
• Earnings considerations
• Considerations on technology valuations
• Long/short strategies
  
  We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Bastardization of money
• Failure of Primus in 2009
• Reflecting on the failure of AIG
• Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
• Henry Paulson and Glass–Steagall
• The Eurodollar system going parabolic in the 2000s
• Banks manipulating regulations
• FOMC understanding of Eurodollars
• Big Picture end game of the Eurodollar system

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

• Outlook for the US dollar
• Update on the Petroyuan oil contract 
• Edge of the Cliff 
• Inflation Risks on the Horizon?
• When is the time for gold?
• Thoughts on cryptocurrencies
• Considerations on interest rates and yields
• Australian real estate
• Perspective on China’s credit bubble
• Writing is on the wall in Europe

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Erik Townsend welcomes Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

• Creation of the MOVE index 
• The three Drivers of Risk:  Duration, Credit, and Convexity
• The demographic of the Baby Boomers continues to drive financial markets
• Looking at the long-term profile of changes in the Labor Force
• Changes in Labor Force growth leads 10-year yields
• Labor participation rates are highly demographic
• Considerations on inflation risks:  Yes…..but not until 2024 when the Boomer/Millennial demographic inflects
• Perspective on CAPE ratio levels
• Correlation of buybacks to cumulative flows
• Gold is not an asset, but rather an alternative currency
• Flow of active to passive management is building a negatively convex foundation
• Triggers for a market correction

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The Basel Accords
• Capital Reserve Ratios
• Understanding risk weightings
• Leverage in bank capital
• Considerations on JPM RiskMetrics
• Basic interbank function
• Interbank function under Basel

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Comparative inventory levels on oil 
• Oil price responsive to inventories
• Realization price recovery in crude prices takes time
• Refinery intakes have not recovered
• Where are average consumption levels
• Outlook on gasoline & distillate stocks
• Backwardation on WTI
• Considerations on OPEC-NOPEC production cuts
• Global market balance on oil

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Outlook on the US Dollar
• Global de-dollarization
• Outlook on gold and silver
• Considerations on basic materials
• Why are grains so weak?
• Considerations on new crude oil contract with settlement in yuan, backed by gold 
• The next Fed Chairman
• ECB policy considerations and decentralization trends in Europe
• Considerations on the Russian economy
• Credit issues in China

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The case of the missing money
• Transformation of banking into a wholesale model
• Radical monetary evolution
• Wholesale vs Offshore Eurodollars
• Understanding the great inflation of the 1970s
• Repo markets of the 1970s
• Development of the Shadow Banking System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Yuskov to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• US Dollar bear thesis from 2016
• Petrodollar world
• Ascendance of the Renminbi
• Treasury bonds as a reserve asset
• Crude oil contract traded in yuan convertible to gold
• One Belt One Road Initiative
• Has the blow off top on the dollar occurred?
• Incrementalism

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Mark Yusko Interview Part 2: All Things Macro 

• Is there room for further upside on the stock markets?
• Is the secular bond bull market over? 
• Inflation outlook
• Precious metals and commodities

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Outlook for the US Dollar and Euro
• Where are the US equity markets going?
• Impact of Global CB policy vs the FED
• Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
• Impact of the hurricanes on the economy
• Outlook for Gold and Silver
• Considerations on European geopolitics
• Perspectives on China’s credit bubble
• Underfunded pension crisis
• Escalation of North Korea tensions

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Erik Townsend welcomes Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

• Global economic outlook
• Is wage and price inflation coming?
• Outlook for the US dollar
• Where are interest rates and the yield curve going?
• Bond volatility vs. steepener
• Consideration on precious metals
• Outlook for the Global equity markets
• The credit bubble in China
• Outlook for the Macro hedge fund industry

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Erik Townsend welcomes Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

• Why be bearish on the US Dollar?
• Do budget deficits matter?
• New yuan oil contract changing global landscape
• Impact on global Eurodollar system
• Long gold, short oil
• What is wrong with a new QE?
• Impact on global holding of Treasury Bonds
• Is inflation in the US a risk?
• Is the economic endgame starting?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• How Dollar becomes ‘Dollar’
• Bankers’ Acceptances
• The Evolution of Eurodollars
• Where do Eurodollars come from?
• Money as interbank liabilities
• What exactly are Eurodollars?
• Transformation of banking into a wholesale model

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Joe McMonigle to MacroVoices. Erik and Joe discuss:

• Is the oil supply glut rebalancing?
• Is OPEC just jawboning the market?
• Import data impacting oil inventories
• Outlook for U.S. oil production
• Update on Venezuelan geopolitics
• What can go wrong with Iran?
• Is the Petrodollar system at risk?
• Is the Saudi Aramco IPO going to happen?
• Is the term structure signaling bullish prices

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Erik Townsend welcomes Josh Crumb to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

• Perspectives on what is gold?
• Energy defining the price of gold
• Interest rates influence on gold
• Gold vs. cryptocurrencies
• Government sponsored cryptocurrencies
• Outlook for the US dollar
• Forecast for gold prices
• Impact stock market volatility would have on gold prices
• Considerations on silver and bitcoins
• Allocated vs. unallocated gold and gold ETFs

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Erik Townsend welcomes Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

• What is the Fourth Turning?
• Why the Fourth Turning started with GFC
• Is there another big global event on the horizon?
• Future changes in political landscape
• What to expect for the next decade?
• Impact of baby boomers retiring
• Understanding the Homelander generation
• Silent vs. Homelander generation
• Reflections on the Fourth Turning book and new consideration

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Erik Townsend welcomes Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik, Raoul and Julian discuss:

• Views on the US Dollar
• Perspectives on equities and business cycle?
• Outlook on the bond bull market
• Will we see a new bull market in precious metals?
• Demographics and Japan
• Considerations on the coming pension crisis
• Where is oil going next?
• Parallels to the 1990’s business cycle

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Erik Townsend welcomes Chris Whalen to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

• Perspectives on the U.S. dollar pullback
• Considerations on the overvalued equity markets
• Corporate debt and interest rate trends
• Outlook on bonds and levels of private debt
• Trump bump and the aftermath
• Is the secular bond bull market over
• Reflecting back on Chris’s book – Inflated
• Considerations on the coming pension crisis
• Highlights on Chris’s new book – Ford Men

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Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

• Update on European geopolitics
• What is in store for European migration
• Considerations on Turkish politics
• Geopolitics associated with the cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies
• Future of US dollars roll as world reserve currency
• Post Donald Trump Texas economics
• Understanding the PPT (Plunge Protection Team)

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Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Ben Hunt to back MacroVoices. Erik and Ben discuss:

• Sea of Change at Central Banks
• Negative impact of Fed shrinking their balance sheet
• Janet Yellen just broke up with you
• Impact on the market conditions moving forward
• Considerations on interest rate and bond trends
• Fed impact on equity markets
• Considerations for the future of the ETF market
• Flaws of the volatility ETFs
• Considerations in the Real Estate Markets

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Erik Townsend welcomes Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

• US growth cycle long in the tooth
• US LEI’s holding up but US recession key theme
• US credit cycle has definitely rolled over
• Global liquidity also deteriorating sharply
• China is also rolling over
• Looking at global equities
• Fixed income considerations
• Consideration on the US dollar
• Looking at Europe, Japan and Australia

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Alex Gurevich back to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

• Mario Draghi and ECB
• Short the Swiss Franc
• US Dollar outlook
• Trump reflation and the equity markets
• Views on secular interest rates
• Inflation trade
• Long-term sustainability of the European Union
• Outlook on China and Japan
• Canadian economy, real estate and Canadian dollar
• Consideration on the oil markets
• Precious metals outlook

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

• DeMark indicators and turning points in exhausted trends 
• Looking at current breadth indicators
• Considerations on share buybacks
• Are we at the secular turn in corporate share buybacks?
• Looking at the VIX short positioning
• Volatility targeting strategies like risk parity
• Is the market setting up for a crash or just a correction
• Demographic catalysts
• Real assets outperforming financial assets
• Can inflation runaway?
• Outlook on Precious metals

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jesse will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss::

• Outlook on the US Dollar
• Is the reflation trade narrative rolling over
• Bullish outlook on the US markets and the Nasdaq
• Where are bond yields going?
• Are the secular lows in bond yields in?
• Outlook on Europe and the Euro
• Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies
• Outlook on the emerging markets
• Is there more upside in precious metals?
• Outlook on China’s debt and economy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

• Mario Draghi and the ECB policy
• UK Election and what is at stake
• Future of the European Union
• Perspectives on the Trump reflation trade
• U.S. Dollar, fiscal and monetary policy
• Understanding the pension crisis
• Chinese Yuan devaluation
• Future of Japanese Debt and Yen

• Outlook on gold

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Perspective on OPEC and the 9-month extension on production cuts
• OPEC’s goal to keep a floor under oil prices
• Positioning of oil traders since February
• Reasons for lower oil prices
• Putting U.S. production into perspective
• Where does comparative inventory price Brent and WTI
• Inventory data and forecasts
• Impact of capital markets and central bank policy
• Early recovery from oil price collapse
• Correlation of U.S. debt to tight oil
• Term structure of the crude oil markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Perspective on OPEC and the 9-month extension on production cuts
• OPEC’s goal to keep a floor under oil prices
• Positioning of oil traders since February
• Reasons for lower oil prices
• Putting U.S. production into perspective
• Where does comparative inventory price Brent and WTI
• Inventory data and forecasts
• Impact of capital markets and central bank policy
• Early recovery from oil price collapse
• Correlation of U.S. debt to tight oil
• Term structure of the crude oil markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Understanding Eurodollars and the Eurodollar shortage
• The real drivers of the US Dollar bull market
• The flaws in the reflation trade narrative
• Looking at the swap spreads turning positive
• Inflation outlook
• Connection between Eurodollars and gold
• TIC US Banking Data – Caribbean, Europe, Asia
• Impact of QE on Eurodollars
• China and PBOC considerations
• Absolute improvement vs. relative

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Professor Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

• Is the U.S. Dollar bull market over?  
• Secular treasury bond bull market
• The coming pension crisis
• Inflation expectations
• Outlook for precious metals
• European exit contagion

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Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss:

• Are the secular lows in interest rates in?
• Minsky vs. Kindelberger
• Is the U.S. “Turning Japanese”?
• Impact of demographics

• Negative interest rates
• Fed hiking into deteriorating economy
• Dollar viability as reserve currency
• European sovereign debt

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Erik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

• Insights into the French elections
• The next move in the US Dollar
• Is the bond bull market over?
• Considerations on the levels of private debt
• Geopolitics of North Korea and Syria
• The economics of China’s debt crisis
• Can we avoid another financial crisis
• Are we at the next Minsky moment?
• Housing bubbles in Canada and Australia
• Considerations for the U.S. housing market 

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Erik Townsend welcomes Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss:

• Views on the U.S. Dollar
• The future of the European Union
• Bullish case for U.S. stocks
• Considerations for international money flows
• Future interest rate trends
• Looking at government debt
• Geopolitics of North Korea and Syria
• Considerations on China and the debt crisis

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Erik Townsend welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

• Looking at the Fed from the inside
• Shadow Banking System
• Reflecting on the Global Financial Crisis
• The culture at the Reserve Banks
• What should be done with the Fed?
• Can interest rates ever be normalized?
• Considerations on the Underfunded Pensions
• What needs to happen next? 

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Erik Townsend welcomes Lance Roberts to MacroVoices. Erik and Lance discuss:

• Liquidity Driven Markets
• Fed Balance Sheet Driving Asset Prices
• Margin Debt Net Credit Balance
• Margin Debt as a % of Real GDP
• Total Liabilities & Equity /GVA
• Total System Leverage
• The Economic Deficit
• Peaks in Real Profit Margins

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• US Dollar, 10-year UST and the FOMC
• Red string of fate ties U.S. to China
• Perspective on the FOMC policy
• Perspectives on the business cycle
• Where is the ISM heading next
• Impact on Trump’s tax and infrastructure spending
• Surprises for the French election

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• U.S. Dollar impact on the U.S. shale bubble
• Peak acceleration in ISM manufacturing
• Headline inflation peaking
• Fed tightening going to start to impact data
• Bond shorting opportunity is over
• Risks to the reflationary trades
• Wage trends in the U.S.
• Perspective on European growth and inflation
• Relative pricing between U.S. and European bunds

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

• Outlook on the US Dollar
• Secular bullish call on gold
• Outlook on silver
• Current demand for physical gold
• Platinum and palladium
• Current fundamentals on lithium
• Macro outlook on the economy and stock markets
• Views on the European Union
• Outlook for China and Russia

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Catalyst for the current decline in oil
• Lack of confidence in OPEC
• Record levels of oil inventories
• Comparative inventories to past years
• World production surplus
• Global liquids consumption growth
• OECD incremental liquids Inventory
• EIA U.S. crude oil forecast

We strongly recommend that you download thechart bookthat accompanies this interview. Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

• The rise and drivers of populism
• Trump and the animal spirits driving the markets
• Trump’s stance on ISIS
• Peak optimism
• Is there a crisis in China?
• Gold/copper ratio
• Stagflation
• U.S. dollar outlook
• Is the 35 year bond bull market over? 

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Erik Townsend welcomes Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

• China Reflation Trade
• Is Chinese Growth Rolling Over?
• Will Trump Get a Weaker US Dollar?
• Brexit and the Future of the European Union
• Philippines and Rodrigo Duterte
• Rise of the Chinese Empire
• India and the Indian Currency System
• Opinions on Stocks and Bonds
• Investment Themes for 2017
• Risks for 2017

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

• Understanding the Eurodollar Money Market 
• Swap Spreads and Interbank Hierarchy
• Dimensions in the Eurodollar Futures and Eurodollar Money Supply
• Why does the World Need So Many Dollars?
• How the Eurodollar market supplanted the Bretton Woods System
• U.S. Dollar and the Dollar Funding Gap
• Reflation Trade Debunked
• Interest Rates Trapped
• Failing Global Currency System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library”  and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Rogers back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

• What’s in store for the U.S. Equity Markets?
• Outlook on the U.S. Dollar
• Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
• Where are junk bonds going?
• History of government failures
• His views on the global populist movements
• Is there war on the horizon? 
•  Are the Russian’s being scapegoated? 
• Update on his views on gold
• His views on movement to cashless society
• Are we moving away from a free society?

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jack Schwager to MacroVoices. Erik and Jack discuss:

• How has futures trading evolved over the last few decades?
• Understanding leverage – stocks vs. futures
• Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis
• The Most Important Rule in Technical Trading
• Understanding Continuous Futures Contacts
• Systems Trading
• Understanding Fundamental Analysis on Futures
• Lessons from the Market Wizards
• What’s new at Fundseeder

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Erik Townsend welcomes David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

• How long does the Trump rally last?
• Is inflation really a risk moving forward?  
• When is it time to become bearish on the markets? 
• When is it time to make your fundamental asset mix shift?
• Fed will play an important role in how the cycle plays out
• US dollar outlook
• Canadian Dollar and Canadian Monetary Policy
• Future of European Union
• Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
• Opportunities and Outlook for 2017 

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision TV back to MacroVoices.  Erik and Raoul discuss:

• Trump impact on the U.S. Dollar
• Is the bond bull market over and where are yields moving from here
• Update on the business cycle (spoiler alert: it is long in the tooth)
• Looking at the European banks and can they survive the next recession
• The overcrowded VIX contango trade
• The short-term direction of gold
• The big opportunities of 2017
• Update on crude oil
• Junk bonds, when do the credit risk return

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Rick Rule from Sprott Global to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

• Trump impact on precious metal prices
• Impact of real yields, inflation, debt and the U.S. Dollar on gold prices
• Due Diligence in making private placements in gold and silver mining companies
• Evaluating intellectual property and physical property
• Characteristics successful and failed endeavors
• The risk vs. reward of speculating in pre-revenue private placements
• How much time and capital is needed to invest in early stage startups
• Being a contrarian, looking where the market is not paying attention

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Erik Townsend welcomes David Hay to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

• Trump victory rally likely overbought
• Recession risk remains high
• Market fails to discount effect of Trump tax plan on corporate buybacks
• USD Rally can’t continue indefinitely; Plaza Accord 2.0 is inevitable
• Global debt burden poses serious risk to full recovery
• Recession could still spell much lower treasury yields
• China situation bad but probably not bad enough to trigger global downturn
• Energy MLPs have tripled in 2016 – Dave still Bullish

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An interview which was originally aired on June 2, 2016, between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Edward Misrahi, Goldman Sachs alumni and founder of Eton Park.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 4. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the final part of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• Definition and origins of the hedge fund
• Whether active managers are able to outperform the market
• Impediments to investing in the "top name" hedge funds
• Various hedge fund strategies
• How to learn and gather more information on hedge funds
• CTA's and managed futures commodity pools
• Fund of funds

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An interview which was originally published on August 2, 2016, between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Paul J. Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3A. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and David discuss:

• Background and introduction to angel investing and entrepreneurship through his great uncle David Rose
• What angel investing actually is, how it might fit in a portfolio, and who it is suited for
• The time-horizon, temperament, and risk-tolerance required for angel investing
• The appropriate mind-set when approaching angel investing
• Expected investment returns from angel investing and the role of diversification
• Why it's “far better to invest in the jockey than on the horse”
• Balancing and matching between entrepreneurial execution and bright ideas
• Mechanics and funding sequence of an angel deal
• Post-investment lifecycle
• The importance of networking with veteran angel investors prior to initial investments
• How the Angel Capital Association vets angel investing groups
• Learning through reading, finding a mentor, and investing
• Gust.com angel investing platform, Singularity University and exponential technology

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• The definition of angel investing
• Profile of a successful angel investor
• Professionally-managed alternative investment vehicles
• Mechanics and nuances involved with investing in alternative vehicles
• Difference between con men and the true outperformers
• Investment minimums and investor quotas in 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) funds
• Origins of the 2/20 fee structure and appropriate due diligence
• Particulars of venture capital and private equity limited partnerships
• Benefits of getting marketing material from funds

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An interview which was originally published on April 29, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Jawad Mian, Founder and Managing Editor of Stray Reflections, a global macro research and trading advisory with a focus on major investment themes and actionable trade ideas.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
• Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
• Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
• China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
• Peak central bank omnipotence
• Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
• Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
• Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
• U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
• Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency
• Real Vision Publications Homepage and Launch Video

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Professor Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

• How Trump might be the most Keynesian President since Reagan
• Possibility of a recession occurring before U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented
• Private debt level's inability to absorb higher rates
• Prospects for a debt jubilee and subsequent credit boom
• Implementation and distribution of debt jubilee as "people's QE"
• Unconstrained QE from central banks
• European Union disintegration making Lehman look like a picnic
• Knock-on effects from European Union disintegration
• Last gasps of neoliberalism evidenced by upcoming UK university classification system

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means
• Production cut being more akin to a floor than a ceiling
• False conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market
• How excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come
• Weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices
• Resumption of U.S. production in response to higher prices
• OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media
• Weakening global economy as the main driver for low oil prices

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the second of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• The process of re-inventing oneself from running a company as an entrepreneur to managing and running money
• Skillset required for investing versus entrepreneurship
• Resources for re-educating yourself into a sophisticated investor
• Options in alternative financial media
• The utility of financial and private investor conferences and groups
• The different categories of private investors and the work required
• How to take a more active role in managing your own investments
• Difference between an asset allocator and a full-time investor

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An interview which was originally published on April 8, 2016 between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Fund Management Plc.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

• The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election 
• Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
• Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
• Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
• The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
• Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
• U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
• Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
• Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
• Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
• China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
• China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
• 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
• State of the global commodities supercycle
• Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss:

• Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail
• What Trump's dollar-spend per voter portends for the moneyed lobbyists
• Sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory
• The long-running trend of repressive economic conditions and Fed policy leading to unrest
• The potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate
• Whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary
• Constitutional limitations pertaining to specific policies espoused by Trump during the campaign
• Outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico
• The big picture behind the global populist movement and where it might be headed next
• Breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements

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An interview which was originally published on October 18, 2015 between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry & Behavioral Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Willem Middelkoop to MacroVoices. Erik and Willem discuss:

• Willem's recent book The Big Reset and the coming monetary reset
• The role the IMF's SDR will play in the next monetary reset
• China's strategic objectives and pushing for the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency
• Outlook for the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status in a Big Reset scenario
• Outlook for the coming secular commodity reflation cycle
• Willem's call to buy precious metals and miners in January 2016
• Gold outlook in the current macroeconomc and geopolitical environment
• Long-run dynamics of monetary history, demographics, and revolution
• Whether Western democracy is still viable
• Alternative forms of government given China's 5000-year history as a civilization
• Trump vs. Clinton Presidencies and potential market impacts

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

• USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment
• Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU
• What the German-Italian sovereign spread portends for EU disintegration probabilities
• Prescriptions for Japan given much greater cultural and political homogeneity
• Evolution of views on developed market equities
• The "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses
• Global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE
• Opinions on QE's efficacy at avoiding an outright global depression
• Government's inability or unwillingness to move on fiscal reform and stimulus
• Where US TSY's are headed next
• Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis
• Maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications

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An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss:

• Technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets
• Hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational
• Central bank intervention and impact across various cycles
• Potential panicked selloff for the trade-weighted U.S. dollar
• Outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes
• Treasury outlook and relationship with longer-term cycles
• Developed markets on-going secular decline despite record equity market
• Emerging market equity outlook, in particular China and India
• Gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs
• Technological and demogrpahic tailwinds for developed markets
• Trump vs. Clinton impacts on markets

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar
• The "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000
• Central banks running out of rope and credibility
• Misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers
• Rumored Deutsche Bank "white knights" in Qatar and China
• Political and social implications for foreign ownership of the European banking system
• Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce
• Investment opportunities in other emerging market economics in light of weak dollar thesis
• Potential longs in the oil and gas space following the supply shock in prices
• Dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation
• Yield-enhancement, short-VIX strategies employed by pension funds
• Trump vs. Clinton implications for financial markets

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